Experts Suck at Predicting the Future

SPOTLIGHT: 50 years ago, Paul Ehrlich made predictions about the future that weren’t slightly wrong – they were off by a country mile. BIG PICTURE: Experts know a great deal, but only about their own area of specialty (and even then, many of their ideas may rest on ambiguous evidence and subjective judgment). American biologist Paul Ehrlich attracted media attention in the late 1960s by forecasting imminent ecological collapse, resource depletion, and widespread famine. >click to read< 13:15 

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