Tag Archives: computer models
Jerry Leeman – Why it is wrong to assume anything
I’ll use this photo to prove a point. NOAA uses a computer to pick where their assessments on fish stocks will take place. Here lies the problem. It’s in random spots, and they never make the same tow again at the same time of the year because they use a computer model that knows nothing of fishing. NOAA is taking the assumption that fish live everywhere. That’s pretty funny because if you knew anything about fishing at all, fish species don’t hang on every piece of bottom all day and night. They just don’t. Not only do fish have tails, but they also swim up into the water columns and travel with the feed and breeding cycles and changes of the seasons. >click to read the rest< by Jerry Leeman.16:16
Twenty-One Bad Things About Wind Energy — and Three Reasons Why
Trying to pin down the arguments of wind promoters is a bit like trying to grab a greased balloon. Just when you think you’ve got a handle on it, it morphs into a different story and escapes your grasp. Let’s take a quick highlight review of how things have evolved with merchandising industrial wind energy.,, Wind energy was abandoned for most commercial and industrial applications, well over a hundred years ago. Even in the late 1800s it was totally inconsistent with our burgeoning, more modern needs for power.,,, The claim that wind energy is “green” or “environmentally friendly” is laugh-out-loud hilarious – except for the fact that the reality is not funny at all.>click to read< 18:51
All (fisheries) models are wrong, but some are useful (to indigenous people)
Models do a great job of distilling the essence of how an ecosystem might respond to external forces—such as fisheries—but only under the specific conditions that the modeller assumes to be true in the ‘world’ of the model. Sometimes these assumptions are well-grounded in reality. Sometimes they are blatant but necessary simplifications. Phil is a lively character, a fishery ecologist who runs the Ecosystem Science section of the Northwest Fisheries Science Center The cool thing about Phil, who I have met personally several times, is that he will tell you right off the bat that “models are bogus”. Read the rest here 12:44
NOAA/NMFS begins fence-mending with Northeast fishermen – After they killed most of them off!
NOAA/NMFS this week undertook an effort to build trust and cooperation from the New England fishing industry by including the industry in upcoming groundfish stock assessments. Dr. Kevin Stokesbury (SMAST) is concerned about the inaccuracy of the various computer models being used to evaluate trends from year to year. As those who attend fisheries council meetings know all too well, the models regularly show discrepancies from one year to the next. These “retrospective patterns” are corrected by amending previous years’ estimates, which indicate an ongoing problem with the models, Stokesbury said. Read the rest here 07:55
WSJ: Confessions of a Computer Modeler: Any model, including those predicting climate (fishery) doom, can be tweaked to yield a desired result
The climate (substitute climate with fishery) debate is heating up again as business leaders, politicians and academics bombard us with the results of that predict costly and dramatic changes in the years ahead. I can offer some insight into the use of computer models for public-policy debates, and a recommendation for the general public. Interesting. Read more here 07:31
